Week 6 Camp Recap — Ocean Stewardship & World Cup Fest 2026

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<header class="hero">
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    <p class="dateline">Santa Monica Bay <span>//</span> Conditions Report <span>//</span> July 2026</p>
    <h1>El Niño Is Here</h1>
    <p class="standfirst">The water is warm, the swells keep coming, and NOAA has made it official. Here is what it actually means for surfing in Los Angeles.</p>
  </div>
</header>
<div class="rail" role="presentation"></div>

<main class="wrap">

  <dl class="readout">
    <div>
      <dt>Water temp, Santa Monica Pier</dt>
      <dd>75 °F</dd>
    </div>
    <div>
      <dt>July average</dt>
      <dd>67.6 °F</dd>
    </div>
    <div>
      <dt>NOAA status</dt>
      <dd>El Niño Advisory</dd>
    </div>
  </dl>

  <p class="lede">If you have paddled out anywhere along the Santa Monica Bay this month, you already knew before the scientists said so. The water is warm. Not pleasant-for-July warm. Trunk-it-at-dawn warm.</p>

  <p>We clocked <strong>75 degrees off the Santa Monica Pier today</strong>. For reference, the July average here is closer to 67. Our coaches have been running camp sessions in boardshorts at hours when we would normally still be zipping kids into spring suits. Add in the run of storms and back-to-back swells that have been marching up from the South Pacific, and the picture gets pretty clear.</p>

  <p>El Niño is here.</p>

  <h2>What the data actually says</h2>

  <p>This is not a hunch. In June, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center upgraded its ENSO alert status to an official <a href="https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml" target="_blank" rel="noopener">El Niño Advisory</a>, meaning El Niño conditions are present rather than merely forecast. Sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are running well above average, and the atmosphere is responding in kind.</p>

  <p>Since then it has only strengthened. The <a href="https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">International Research Institute at Columbia</a> has the key Niño 3.4 index climbing past +2.0°C in mid-July, with near-unanimous model agreement that this event keeps building into the fall. NOAA's own July update puts the odds of a very strong El Niño during October through December high enough that it would <a href="https://weather.com/2026/07/09/news/climate/july-update-super-el-nino-strengthening-noaa" target="_blank" rel="noopener">rank among the largest events in the record going back to 1950</a>.</p>

  <blockquote>Warm water is not the event. Warm water is the receipt.</blockquote>

  <p>The warm water we are feeling at the beach is the visible, local end of a Pacific-wide shift. When the trade winds slacken, that enormous pool of warm water that normally piles up on the western side of the Pacific sloshes back east. The cold upwelling that usually keeps Southern California bracing gets suppressed. And we end up surfing in July in boardshorts, wondering where our wetsuits went.</p>

  <h2>What El Niño means for LA surfers</h2>

  <p>Here is where it gets fun, with the caveat that every El Niño is its own animal and none of this is a guarantee. But the historical pattern is well established, and it points toward an interesting winter.</p>

  <h3>A more active storm track</h3>
  <p>El Niño tends to drag the subtropical jet stream south, which historically puts Southern California in line for a wetter, stormier winter. More storms in the North Pacific generally means more swell arriving on our doorstep.</p>

  <h3>Bigger, more consistent winter surf</h3>
  <p>The classic El Niño winters, 1982 to 1983 and 1997 to 1998 being the benchmarks, delivered some of the largest surf in living memory to California. West and northwest swells arrive with more size and more frequency. For experienced surfers that is Christmas. For everyone else it means being smarter about where and when you paddle out.</p>

  <h3>Warmer water for longer</h3>
  <p>The most immediate perk, and the one our campers are enjoying right now. Warm water means longer sessions, less time shivering on the beach, and kids who want to stay in until the very last minute of camp.</p>

  <h3>More coastal erosion and stronger currents</h3>
  <p>The honest flip side. Bigger winter swells mean sand moving off our beaches, more powerful rip currents, and conditions that demand real respect. This is the part we teach hardest.</p>

  <div class="note">
    <span class="tag">A note for parents</span>
    <p>Bigger surf headlines can sound alarming. They should not be. Our camps run on small groups with a minimum 3:1 camper-to-instructor ratio, and our coaches are CPR and First Aid certified and in the water at all times. We read the conditions every single morning and put every camper in waves that match their ability. On big days, the outside sets are the show and we surf the fun stuff on the inside. Always.</p>
  </div>

  <h2>Why this is a gift for our campers and lessons</h2>

  <p>There is a version of this story that is all charts and acronyms. Here is the version that matters to us.</p>

  <p>Our campers and lesson students are learning to surf during one of the most interesting oceanographic years the Pacific has served up in a decade. That is not a footnote. It is the curriculum. Our <strong>Environmental Impact, Weather and Tides</strong> week has been landing differently this summer because the ocean is doing something genuinely remarkable, and the kids can feel it with their own hands and feet.</p>

  <p>The same goes for our <a href="https://www.sunrisesurfacademy.com/lessons">private and group lessons</a>, where warm water buys us something valuable: time. Nobody is cutting a session short because they got cold. Beginners get to stay out longer, take more waves, and build real confidence instead of fighting the chill. It is the single best window of the year to learn.</p>

  <p>They are learning to read water temperature. They are learning why the tide chart matters. They are learning that the ocean is a system that connects a slackening trade wind thousands of miles away to the wave breaking in front of them at Venice. Kids who understand that grow up to be surfers who respect the ocean, and adults who care about protecting it.</p>

  <p>That is the whole point of what we do.</p>

  <h2>Getting in the water this summer</h2>

  <p>The water is as warm as it gets, the waves have been consistent, and there is no better window to get a kid started. Our themed weekly camps run at <strong>Will Rogers State Beach in Pacific Palisades</strong> and <strong>Venice Beach</strong> for ages 5 to 16, all skill levels, right through <strong>September 5th</strong>.</p>

  <p>We have already sold out multiple days this season, and the remaining weeks are moving quickly.</p>

  <div class="cta">
    <h2>Book Your Week</h2>
    <p>Warm water, small groups, and coaches who know this coastline. <a href="https://www.sunrisesurfacademy.com/camps">Explore all our camps and weekly themes</a>, or grab a spot before the summer runs out.</p>
    <a class="btn" href="https://www.sunrisesurfacademy.com/camps/booking">Reserve a Spot</a>
  </div>

  <section class="sources">
    <h2>Sources &amp; Further Reading</h2>
    <ul>
      <li><a href="https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NOAA Climate Prediction Center — ENSO Diagnostic Discussion</a></li>
      <li><a href="https://www.weather.gov/twc/enso" target="_blank" rel="noopener">National Weather Service — El Niño and La Niña Information</a></li>
      <li><a href="https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">IRI at Columbia University — Current ENSO Forecast</a></li>
      <li><a href="https://weather.com/2026/07/09/news/climate/july-update-super-el-nino-strengthening-noaa" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Weather Channel — July 2026 El Niño Update</a></li>
    </ul>
  </section>

  <p class="footnote">
    Sunrise Surf Academy runs kids' summer surf camps and <a href="https://www.sunrisesurfacademy.com/lessons">surf lessons</a> for all ages at Will Rogers State Beach in Pacific Palisades, Santa Monica, and Venice Beach in Los Angeles, California. Camp runs weekly through September 5th, 2026.
    <br><br>
    Conditions change fast. Always check a current marine forecast and local lifeguard guidance before you paddle out.
  </p>

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El Niño Is Here: 75° Water and What It Means for LA Surf